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current market drivers Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030 11 The Bombardier Aerospace Business Aircraft Market Forecast uses an econometric model based on several market drivers to forecast business jet demand. The most significant drivers are detailed below. Economic Market Drivers Global Economy The state of the world economy, and that of individual countries, is a key factor in the demand for air travel. For most of 2008 and 2009, the worldwide economy experienced a sharp downturn. The last recession was the result of a major financial crisis that had an impact in all regions of the globe, when world real GDP shrank at an annual rate of 2.1% in 2009. Concerted efforts by all state governments helped the economy to find the path toward growth in the second half of 2009. As a result, the world GDP rebounded by 3.9% in 2010, led by strong growth in emerging economies and an improved U.S. economy. For 2011, the world economy is expected to continue growing at an annual rate of 3.5%, and to stabilize at approximate- ly 3.4% per year in the longer term. In its June 2011 Economic Outlook, the OECD stated: “This is a delicate moment for the global economy, and the crisis is not over until our economies are creating enough jobs again.” More than 50 million people are currently jobless in the OECD area. The recovery seems, however, to be in the process of becoming self-sustained, with trade and investment gradually replacing fiscal and monetary stimulus as the principal drivers of economic growth. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund talks about a two-speed recovery. They expect the world economy to grow at about 4.5% a year in both 2011 and 2012, but with advanced economies growing at only 2.5% percent, and emerging and developing economies grow at a much higher 6.5% percent. Sources: IHS Global Insight, February 2011. 4.0% 1.6% -2.1% 3.5% 3.5% 3.7% 3.9% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Prospect for World GDP Growth World GDP growth forecast (percent change), 2007-2013 Demand for business jets is increasing with the resumption of global economic growth.